文献类型：期刊文章

作　　者：丁刚[1] 赵萍萍[2]

机构地区：[1]兰州大学经济学院 [2]河南省平顶山天鹰集团

出　　处：《统计研究》

年　　份：2005

卷　　号：22

期　　号：3

起止页码：45-48

语　　种：中文

收录情况：BDHX、BDHX2004、CSSCI、CSSCI2004_2005、JST、NSSD、RCCSE、RWSKHX、SKJJZZ、ZGKJHX、核心刊

摘　　要：In the previous research,when the economic factor forecasting solution of Urbanization was used into practice,the users almost always ignored the effects of the lagged economic development factors.The accuracy of the forecasting should be decreased seriously by this way.In this paper,taking Gansu province as an example,the authors try to improve the forecasting accuracy on the basis of the unrestricted PDL(Polynomial Distributed Lag)Models.In the context,the ARIMA Models and CPPS software are also applied to finish the forecasting more accurately.

关 键 词：PDL模型 城市化 ARIMA模型 CPPS软件  预测方法  甘肃  

分 类 号：F299.274.2] F22